Radico Khaitan, the premium alco-bev company behind luxury brands like Rampur, Royal Ranthambore, and Jaisalmer Gin, has captured the attention of Dalal Street once again. In a rare display of consensus, three top-tier brokerages — Ventura Securities, Motilal Oswal, and Sharekhan (Mirae Asset) — have all issued bullish outlooks on the stock, projecting significant upside potential ranging from 22% to nearly 48% over the next 1–2 years.
Adding more fuel to the rally is the fact that seasoned investor Mukul Agrawal holds 14,00,083 shares, signaling high conviction from marquee investors.
📊 Price Targets at a Glance
| Brokerage | Target Price (INR) | CMP (Approx INR) | Upside Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura | 3,632 | 2,458 | 47.76% |
| Motilal Oswal | 3,000 | 2,458 | 22.05% |
| Sharekhan | 2,951 | 2,458 | 20.05% |
🔁 Common Themes Across All Three Brokerages
Despite different valuation models and target prices, the bullish sentiment stems from a shared recognition of Radico’s structural transformation in the last 5 years. Here’s what all three analysts agree on:
1. 🥃 Premiumization as the Core Growth Strategy
- Radico Khaitan has successfully moved up the value chain with new launches like Royal Ranthambore, Rampur Single Malt, Morpheus Brandy, and Jaisalmer Gin.
- The P&A (Prestige & Above) portfolio has clocked 15M+ cases, growing at ~20% CAGR over the past five years.
- All firms agree: premiumization is not just a trend but the future of the Indian alco-bev industry, and Radico Khaitan is at the forefront.
2. 📈 Double-Digit Volume & Revenue Growth
- P&A volume CAGR is projected at 15%+ across all estimates.
- Revenue growth CAGR ranges from 16% to 18% over FY25–FY28.
- Ventura, Motilal, and Sharekhan all forecast strong cash flow generation, improved return ratios, and robust EBITDA margin expansion (targeting 15–16.6%).
3. 🌐 Pan-India & Global Expansion
- Radico is expanding aggressively in domestic markets like UP, AP, Telangana, TN, and Karnataka.
- International expansion is underway, with a growing share of exports and premium travel retail.
- Launch of new global-focused luxury SKUs like Ankahi Zaffran Spiced Liqueur signals intent to go global in a big way.
4. 💰 Debt Reduction + Improved Margins
- Sharekhan reports that INR 114 crore debt was repaid in FY25, with the company targeting to become debt-free by FY27.
- With raw material inflation stabilizing (glass, ENA, grains), all brokerages foresee margin tailwinds.
5. 🔄 Route-to-Market (RTM) Overhaul
- All reports call out the RTM transition in Andhra Pradesh (AP) as a game-changing success, boosting Radico’s AP market share from 10% to 23% in under a year.
- This model is seen as replicable across other states, offering an underappreciated lever for volume growth.
📈 Why Ventura Sees the Highest Upside (Target INR 3,632)
While all three brokerages are optimistic, Ventura stands out with a target price that is ~21% higher than Motilal Oswal and Sharekhan’s estimate. Here’s why:
🔹 1. Longer-Term Horizon (FY27E Target) with Rich Valuation Multiple
Ventura applies a 70.3x P/E multiple on FY27E EPS, significantly higher than Motilal’s 60x. They’re pricing in not just current visibility but future premiumization and margin expansion.
🔹 2. Aggressive Growth Assumptions
Ventura forecasts:
- Revenue CAGR of 17.4% (vs. 16% for Motilal)
- EBITDA CAGR of 30.2%
- PAT CAGR of 38.2%
Motilal Oswal is more conservative, assuming EPS CAGR of 30% and slightly moderated margin growth.
🔹 3. Valuation Anchored in Future Potential
Ventura highlights:
“Future volume and realization could re-rate the stock through market recognition of potential.”
They see Radico as a long-duration compounding story in premium liquor, similar to how the market has re-rated premium FMCG or consumer discretionary names over time.
🔬 What Each Brokerage Emphasizes
| Brokerage | Unique Emphasis |
|---|---|
| Ventura | Long-term brand equity, detailed SWOT, aggressive CAGR |
| Motilal Oswal | Execution excellence, industry-beating stock returns (25x in 10 yrs) |
| Sharekhan | Detailed segmental breakdown, real-time pricing and margin levers |
👑 The Mukul Agrawal Signal
Notably, ace investor Mukul Agrawal holds 14,00,083 shares. While brokerages project bullish valuations, the presence of such a high-conviction investor further validates the company’s long-term narrative.
📌 Risks Investors Should Watch
- Policy Risk: Liquor is a state subject — excise policy changes can derail pricing power.
- Input Cost Volatility: Glass and ENA inflation, though easing, remains a watchpoint.
- Global Competition: With FTA-led duty cuts, global scotch brands may price more aggressively.
🧾 Final Word: Premium Future, Premium Valuation
Radico Khaitan is no longer just a liquor stock—it’s an emerging consumer brand play, riding the twin engines of premiumization and distribution expansion. While the valuations may appear rich, a 30%+ EPS CAGR and strong cash flow profile justify the optimism. The unanimous buy calls from Ventura, Motilal Oswal, and Sharekhan reflect structural tailwinds and market leadership in premium spirits.
For investors betting on India’s rising affluent consumption and global brand aspirations, Radico Khaitan is a toast worth raising. For more details related to IPO GMP, SEBI IPO Approval, and Live Subscription stay tuned to IPO Central.