ICICI Securities has reiterated a BUY on Signature Global India with a revised target price of INR 1,786 (from INR 1,742), pointing to a material re-rating potential for the Gurugram-focused developer. At a CMP of INR 1,112, the target implies ~60.61% upside, underscoring the broker’s bullish stance on Signature Global’s launch momentum and multi-year project pipeline.
Why the Call Stays Bullish
- Launch Engine Set to Rev: After a lighter first half, the company plans H2 FY26 launches with GDV of INR 13,000–14,000 crore—primarily across Gurugram’s Sector 37D (~3.6msf) and a large phase in Sector 71 (~4msf)—which management expects will re-accelerate pre-sales.
- Sales Guidance Intact: Despite H1 FY26 sales bookings of INR 4,700 crore, Signature Global maintains FY26 guidance of ~INR 12,500 crore, implying ~INR 7,800 crore of H2 bookings.
- Deep Pipeline Supports Multi-year Growth: The report flags a cumulative GDV of >INR 45,000 crore over FY25–FY28E, with ~16msf planned for launch over FY26–FY29E—a key underpin for sustained pre-sales.
What the ICICI Securities Model Says
ICICI Securities’ base case bakes in:
- FY26E/FY27E/FY28E Sales Bookings: INR 11,900 Cr / INR 12,700 Cr / INR 13,900 Cr
- Collections to pick up in H2 FY26 as construction milestones are crossed at high-value Gurugram projects (Sector 71, Sector 37D).
- Revenue and Profitability Ramp:
- Net Revenue: INR 3,909.6 Cr (FY26E) → INR 5,075.6 Cr (FY27E) → INR 6,590.8 Cr (FY28E)
- EBITDA: INR 740.7 Cr → INR 1,061.2 Cr → INR 1,487.7 Cr
- PAT: INR 565.1 Cr → INR 822.5 Cr → INR 1,164.4 Cr
- EBITDA Margin: 18.9% (FY26E) rising to 22.6% (FY28E)
Note: The broker attributes the subdued H1 FY26 (sales bookings INR 4,700 crore, collections INR 1,900 crore) to lower new launches (GDV INR 4,300 crore vs FY26 launch guidance of INR 17,000 crore). The mix/timing hit margins in H1, but fundamentals are deemed intact with H2 catalysts lined up.
Signature Global Target Price & Valuation
The stock is valued on embedded EBITDA rather than a traditional project-NAV approach, reflecting a sector backdrop where developers are reinvesting aggressively while keeping balance sheets lean. ICICI Securities uses:
- Metric: 7x FY25–FY28E average embedded EBITDA of INR 3,640 crore
- Assumed Embedded EBITDA Margin: ~30%
- Outcome: Equity value consistent with Signature Global target price of INR 1,786 per share
Risks the Street Should Watch
- Single-Market Concentration: A slowdown in Gurugram would directly hit pre-sales and cash flows.
- Land Replenishment: Failure to refresh the land bank at attractive economics could compress medium-term growth.
The Bottom Line
ICICI Securities’ thesis is straightforward: H2 FY26 launch heavy-lifting plus a thick, visibility-rich pipeline sets up stronger pre-sales and cash conversion, justifying a going-concern, embedded-EBITDA multiple rather than static NAV math. With guidance intact and project milestones poised to unlock collections, the broker’s ‘BUY’ rating stands—anchored by a target of INR 1,786 (implying ~61% upside), while candidly flagging Gurugram cyclicality and land banking as key swing factors.
For more details related to IPO GMP, SEBI IPO Approval, and Live Subscription stay tuned to IPO Central.