India’s hospitality bellwether Lemon Tree Hotels has found itself at the center of investor optimism as three of the country’s leading brokerage houses — ICICI Securities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, and IDBI Capital — issued “BUY” recommendations, projecting a 20–30% upside from current levels.
Following a series of renovation-led upgrades, premium brand expansions, and a robust post-pandemic rebound, Lemon Tree Hotels is now being seen as a strategic long-term growth story within India’s resurging travel and leisure sector.
ICICI Securities: “Revamped Rooms and Aurika to Lead Growth”
In its 14 November 2025 report, ICICI Securities reaffirmed its BUY rating with a Lemon Tree Hotels target price of INR 185, implying a 20% potential upside from the CMP of INR 154.
The brokerage lauded the company’s renovation strategy and the ramp-up of its premium Aurika brand as pivotal growth drivers.
“With ongoing renovations and rebranding across properties, Lemon Tree Hotels is poised to command higher average room rates (ARRs) and stronger RevPAR growth,” noted ICICI analysts.
Key takeaways from ICICI’s note:
- Revenue growth: 7.7% YoY in Q2FY26 to INR 306.3 crore.
- EBITDA margin: 42.7%, down 330 bps YoY, impacted by one-time ex-gratia and tech investments.
- PAT: Up 20% YoY to INR 41.9 crore.
- Aurika Mumbai: Occupancy at 71%, EBITDA margin 58%.
- Long-term projection: Aurika Delhi (Nehru Place) expected ARR north of INR 12,500 with EBITDA of INR 150 crore post-stabilisation.
The brokerage expects EBITDA margins north of 59% by FY28, driven by easing renovation costs and stronger room pricing. ICICI also anticipates value unlocking through the de-merger of Fleur Hotels in the second half of FY26.
Motilal Oswal: “Renovations Done, Growth Check-In Ahead”
Motilal Oswal, in its 18 November 2024 report reviewing 2QFY25, had set a Lemon Tree Hotels target price of INR 200 (then representing a 30% upside from the CMP of INR 154). The brokerage emphasized the company’s balanced growth strategy, noting that renovation-led disruptions would soon give way to higher realizations and stronger profitability.
Highlights from Motilal Oswal’s analysis:
- Revenue: INR 284.4 Cr (+25% YoY).
- EBITDA: INR 130 Cr (+28% YoY).
- PAT: INR 29.6 Cr (+31% YoY).
- EBITDA Margin: 46%.
- Target: FY27E EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.2x; P/E 31.9x.
Motilal Oswal foresees a Revenue CAGR of 16%, EBITDA CAGR of 19%, and PAT CAGR of 33% over FY24–FY27, backed by stronger occupancies in metro markets and Aurika’s contribution.
“Lemon Tree’s growth is anchored by its premium brand scaling, high-margin management contracts, and disciplined debt reduction,” the report stated.
IDBI Capital: “Earnings Strength Despite Headwinds”
Echoing a similar tone, IDBI Capital’s 14 November 2025 note also reiterated a BUY call with a Lemon Tree Hotels target price of INR 200, suggesting a 30% upside. IDBI analysts praised Lemon Tree’s “record Q2 revenue despite macro turbulence,” citing execution resilience and financial discipline as key strengths.
IDBI Capital’s findings:
- Revenue: INR 306.3 Cr (+7.7% YoY).
- EBITDA: INR 130.7 Cr (flat YoY, margin 42.7%).
- PAT: INR 41.9 Cr (+20% YoY).
- Borrowing cost: Down to 7.72% (from 8.68% in FY25).
- Credit rating: Upgraded to A+.
- Net Debt: INR 1,610 Cr, with further deleveraging expected.
IDBI expects FY25–FY28 Revenue CAGR of 14%, EBITDA CAGR of 16%, and PAT CAGR of 30%, with margins expanding to 51%+ by FY28 as renovations conclude and Aurika scales up.
“The company’s resilience amid macro shocks underscores its brand strength. Renovation-led margin headwinds are transient — the next three years will be marked by margin accretion and deleveraging,” IDBI’s note highlighted.
Aurika – The Jewel in Lemon Tree’s Crown
Across all reports, the Aurika brand emerged as a recurring theme. From Aurika Mumbai, now approaching 80% occupancy and ARR above INR 9,500, to upcoming projects in Delhi, Shimla, and Shillong, analysts see this premium segment as the company’s bridge to a higher-value portfolio.
By FY28, Aurika alone is expected to contribute INR 270–280 crore in revenue and INR 170–175 crore in EBITDA, solidifying Lemon Tree Hotels’ foothold in the upscale market.
Debt Down, Margins Up: Financials at a Glance
| Metric | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
| Revenue | 1,286 | 1,466 | 1,696 | 1,918 |
| EBITDA | 634 | 725 | 858 | 984 |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 49.3 | 49.5 | 50.6 | 51.3 |
| PAT | 243 | 306 | 426 | 538 |
| EPS | 3.1 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 6.8 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 23.2 | 19.8 | 16.4 | 13.9 |
| RoE (%) | 22.9 | 23.2 | 25.3 | 24.8 |
| Debt/Equity (x) | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
Lemon Tree Hotels Target Price: Analyst Consensus
The three bullish calls converge on a single narrative — Lemon Tree Hotels has successfully navigated a demanding renovation cycle while maintaining profitability. The focus now shifts to premiumisation, balance sheet strength, and sustainable growth.
With India’s hospitality industry riding a multiyear upcycle, limited new supply, and corporate travel regaining momentum, Lemon Tree Hotels’ positioning looks enviable. The company’s asset-light management model, Aurika’s success, and debt reduction plan place it squarely among the top mid-cap re-rating candidates in the travel and leisure space.
Final Word
As renovations near completion and flagship properties begin to mature, analysts agree that FY26–FY28 will be transformative for Lemon Tree Hotels. With three of India’s top brokerages now aligned in their optimism, investors are clearly checking in for the long stay.
Consensus Verdict:
🟢 BUY
📈 Target Range: INR 185 – INR 200
💹 Upside Potential: 20% – 30% (12-month horizon)
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