In a further demonstration of the rapid pace of growth in India’s wind energy space, Systematix Institutional Research has forecast a record Q4 for Inox Wind in FY25, with all-time high numbers for revenue, EBITDA, profit before tax (PBT) and profit after tax (PAT). This is not only a reflection of the company’s execution capabilities but also the strong policy tailwinds and structural recovery in the renewable energy space.
Blockbuster Financials Expected in Q4FY25
Systematix has estimated Inox Wind’s consolidated revenue for Q4FY25 at INR 1,290 crore, up 144% year-on-year (YoY) and 41% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). This will be driven largely by strong pickup in deliveries of its 3MW wind turbine generator (WTG) sets.
- EBITDA at INR 257 crore, up 152% YoY and 24% QoQ, with EBITDA margin of ~20%. Healthy sign of operational efficiency at scale. PAT (post minority interest) at INR 184 crore, up 562% YoY and 72% QoQ. This is on the back of 251 MW executed in Q4, up from 129 MW in same quarter last year and 189 MW in previous quarter, a 94% YoY and 33% QoQ growth.
Cost Rationalization
A big tailwind for the company is the 50% YoY and 21% sequential decline in interest costs in Q4FY25. This deleveraging is playing a key role in driving net profitability and improving project returns. Deleveraging is expected to continue in FY26 as well.
Order Book and Sector Outlook Remain Strong
As of Q3FY25, Inox Wind had a net order book of ~3,286 MW, with a 153 MW order from a leading renewable developer added recently to replenish execution linked depletions. Post Q4 execution, the order book is expected to be ~3,188 MW which gives good revenue visibility for FY26. From a macro perspective, India’s cumulative wind power capacity has crossed 50 GW, with MNRE confirming 4.1 GW of new wind capacity added in FY25, up from 3.3 GW in FY24.
This is in line with the broader government’s target to ramp up renewable capacity as India moves towards its 2070 net zero emissions target. Wind is also gaining traction in the renewable energy (RE) mix as hybrid and round the clock (RTC) RE projects are seeing a massive push.
Inox Wind Post-IPO Performance
Inox Wind launched its IPO on 18 March 2015, with an issue size of INR 1,020.56 crore. The IPO was subscribed 18.6 times and delivered a 34.76% returns. On 24 May 2024, the stock was undergone 4:1 stock split. So the adjusted allotmen price will be INR 81.25 per share. Inox wind made its all time high of INR 254.34 per share, reflecting a multibagger return of 213% from its adjusted allotment price. Currently, it is trading around INR 152 per share, a correction of 40% from its all-time high.
Valuation and Investment View
Inox Wind is currently trading at INR 152, with Systematix maintaining a ‘BUY‘ rating and a target price of INR 221 per share, implying a 45% upside potential. The stock is valued at a P/E of 21x for FY26E and 18x for FY27E, a reasonable multiple given the scale of growth, execution visibility, and improving return ratios.
Key risks to watch include potential policy uncertainties, delayed infrastructure development, and the volatility in order inflows — common factors in capital-intensive, regulated industries. However, the improving pace of EPC execution and the expanding manufacturing base should offer strong counterbalances.
Conclusion
With its execution engine firing on all cylinders, margin profile strengthening, and order visibility intact, Inox Wind seems poised to deliver not just a bumper Q4FY25 but a structurally improved FY26 and beyond. Investors looking to ride India’s renewable revolution may find compelling value in this green energy major, especially as tailwinds from policy, capacity additions, and global decarbonization momentum converge.
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