Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on India’s fast-evolving defense and aerospace sector, calling it a “multi-decade rerating phase” led by private innovators. The firm projects India’s total addressable market (TAM) to expand sixfold from INR 1.6 lakh crore in FY25 to INR 10.4 lakh crore by FY47, supported by a 9% CAGR in capital outlay and 32% EPS CAGR for private players, compared to just 13% for public sector undertakings (PSUs)
Goldman’s bullish stance is rooted in three structural shifts:
- Indigenisation – Over 5,000 defense items have been indigenised, reducing foreign dependency in the Army from 62% to just 5%.
- Export Boom – India’s defense exports have surged from INR 680 crore in FY14 to INR 23,600 crore in FY25 and are targeted to hit INR 50,000 crore by FY29.
- Global Re-Armament – Europe’s €800 billion “Readiness 2030” plan and NATO’s new 5% GDP defense spend benchmark are opening massive supply opportunities for Indian firms in titanium components, radar systems, and munitionsilide.
Goldman frames it as a tectonic shift — “India is moving from policy push to profit pull”, forecasting a breakout phase in FY26–FY30 when private defense firms could command valuation premiums similar to global primes.
Why Goldman Sachs is Bullish on PTC Industries
Goldman Sachs’ top two picks in the sector are Solar Industries (Buy, +36%) and PTC Industries (Buy, +58%). The brokerage expects PTC to record the highest earnings growth among all covered companies — a staggering 123% CAGR through FY28E, supported by strong tailwinds in aerospace-grade titanium and superalloy castingsilide.
1. Strategic Position in Global Titanium Supply Chain
PTC Industries is establishing the world’s largest single-site recycled titanium facility by FY26 and has secured contracts from major global OEMs for titanium and superalloy castings used in commercial and defense platforms. With 82% of its revenues from exports, the company stands to benefit directly from disruptions in global titanium supply chains — a key material for aircraft and missile engines.
2. Aerospace Engine Ecosystem Advantage
India’s push toward local aeroengine manufacturing — including co-production of GE’s F-414 engines for Tejas Mk-2 and indigenous engines for AMCA — is creating a massive ecosystem opportunity. Goldman identifies PTC Industries and Azad Engineering as the two Indian firms best positioned in this space, being already embedded in global aeroengine supply chain.
3. Strong Export-Led Growth, High Capex Phase
While Goldman expects PTC Industries to remain free cash flow negative until FY29E due to high capex intensity, the firm believes its steep growth trajectory and global linkages justify a FY28E P/E of 52.9x — a premium reserved for global defense compounders like Rheinmetall.
The report calls PTC’s growth model “the 3Cs of excellence — Capability, Capacity, and Contracts”, highlighting its transition from niche supplier to core partner in the global aerospace engine ecosystem.
Broader Defense Sector Tailwinds
Goldman’s report underscores how India’s defense renaissance is being powered by both domestic modernization and global rearmament cycles. Key themes include:
- Indigenisation Momentum: Import dependence of the Air Force has fallen from 67% to 13%, and the Navy’s from 55% to 17%.
- Private Sector Edge: Private players now account for 65% of defense exports, despite having only a 35% share of total production.
- “White Space” Opportunities: Areas such as aeroengines, radar electronics, and specialty materials (Ti, SA) are emerging as multi-decade high-margin frontiers.
- Europe’s Defense Demand: Goldman sees India as a natural supplier to Europe’s €800bn+ defense rebuild under “Readiness 2030”, especially in artillery, drones, radar systems, and AI-enabled defense electronics.
PTC Industries’ Investment Case: A Rare High-Growth Compounder
| Metric | Goldman Sachs Estimate |
|---|---|
| PTC Industries Target Price | INR 24,725 |
| Upside Potential | +58% |
| FY28E P/E | 52.9x |
| Earnings CAGR (FY25–FY28E) | 123% |
| Revenue Exposure (Exports) | 82% |
| Free Cash Flow Positive | By FY29E |
| Capex Focus | Aerospace-grade titanium & superalloy capacity |
Goldman calls PTC one of “the highest earnings growth stories in its India coverage”, projecting that as the aerospace engine ecosystem scales domestically, PTC will emerge as a structural beneficiary of India’s transition from importer to exporter of security.
PTC Industries Stock Performance
Over the past five years, PTC Industries shares have demonstrated exceptional growth. On 16 October 2020, the company’s stock was trading at INR 324 per share. Since then, it has maintained a strong upward trajectory.
By 10 January 2025, the stock reached an impressive INR 17,084.20 per share, representing a record-breaking increase of approximately 5,162%. Currently, PTC Industries’ shares are trading around INR 15,924, marking a 6.8% correction from its all-time high.
Smart Money Already in the Stock
Adding to the bullish sentiment, ace investors have already taken sizeable bets on PTC:
- Vikas Khemani holds 4,47,762 shares (2.99% stake) worth INR 713 crore.
- Mukul Agrawal owns 1,60,000 shares (1.1% stake) worth INR 255 crore.
Their presence acts as a strong sentiment trigger for retail and institutional investors, validating Goldman’s conviction.
The Bigger Picture: India’s Defense Revolution
Goldman’s analysts describe the current phase as “India’s breakout moment in global defense supply chains”. With a 9% capital outlay CAGR, TAM rising sixfold, and private sector dominance in exports, the investment case extends beyond cyclical tailwinds — it’s a structural rerating story.
As the brokerage succinctly puts it: “India is no longer just Making in India — it is now Supplying to the World.”
Conclusion
Goldman Sachs’ initiation on PTC Industries is not just a company call — it’s a vote of confidence in India’s defense industrial transformation. With aerospace titanium capacity, global OEM linkages, and visionary investors on board, PTC stands at the intersection of India’s strategic ambition and global defense demand.
If Goldman’s projections play out, PTC could be the dark horse leading India’s next decade of defense-led wealth creation.
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