Decoding the Accuracy of IPO GMP

India is a market with strong growth in IPO volumes, thanks to its dynamic regulatory framework, robust domestic capital market. India has emerged as a hotspot for IPO activity, driven by a progressive regulatory environment, a well-established domestic capital market, and a vast base of retail investors. In 2025 alone, the country saw around 90 mainboard IPOs—averaging nearly 7 to 8 each month.

Before subscribing to IPOs, investors should consider the accuracy of IPO GMP. The GMP represents the extra amount—above the IPO issue price—that investors, particularly High Net-Worth Individuals (HNIs), are willing to pay. This unofficial indicator is commonly used to gauge the likely listing price of a stock, even before it hits the exchanges.

While GMP is a widely followed metric, its reliability remains uncertain. Many investors rely on rough estimates rather than concrete data, as the grey market lacks transparency.

Typically, a positive GMP signals strong demand in the unofficial market, but it can also turn negative, indicating weak sentiment. Since GMP figures start surfacing 5 to 10 days before the IPO opens—and sometimes even earlier—investors closely track these premiums during the pre-listing phase. Despite its popularity, the actual predictive value of GMP is still debated and should be approached with caution.

Is GMP accurate for IPOs?

Is grey market premium reliable?

IPO Central analyzed all the mainboard IPOs that were listed in 2024 to find an answer to these questions.

Methodology: Accuracy of IPO GMP in 2024

India’s primary markets saw 90 companies get listed through IPOs within the calendar year 2025. Further, four offers from the pack – Sagility India, Godawari Biorefineries, Niva Bupa Health Insurance and Carraro India– had no meaningful activity in the grey market. Therefore, these IPOs have been removed from our analysis.

We analyzed the correlation between Grey Market Premiums and actual listing performance. In a high-correlation scenario, high GMPs should consistently get translated into similar listing gains.

For this, we calculated the average GMP of each of the 86 IPOs in 2024 and calculated the difference between the actual listing price and the indicative listing price according to the median GMP. Since a lot of factors change between subscription and listing, we also took similar readings for the GMP rates a day prior to listing. Both sets are presented in the table below.

Name	IPO Price	Avg GMP	Latest GMP	Listing price	Variance Avg GMP %	Variance Latest GMP %
Unimech Aerospace	785	518	675	1,376.25	5.62	-5.74
Senores Pharmaceutical	391	205	250	557.05	-6.54	-13.10
Ventive Hospitality	643	58	70	704.35	0.48	-1.21
Concord Enviro Systems	701	70	90	827.10	7.28	4.56
DAM Capital	283	147	165	415.10	-3.47	-7.34
Sanathan Textiles	321	50	90	388.35	4.68	-5.51
Mamata Machinery	243	178	260	630.00	49.64	25.25
Transrail Lighting	432	164	190	553.55	-7.12	-11.00
International Gemmological Institute	417	111	105	471.15	-10.77	-9.74
Inventurus Knowledge Solutions	1,329	393	400	1,960.85	13.87	13.41
One Mobikwik Systems	279	127	157	528.00	30.05	21.10
Vishal Mega Mart	78	18	18	111.93	16.59	16.59
Sai Life Sciences	549	38	70	764.65	30.26	23.53
Suraksha Diagnostic	441	7	7	417.25	-6.86	-6.86
Enviro Infra	148	36	55	207.07	12.54	2.00
NTPC Green Energy	108	12	3	121.65	1.38	9.59
Zinka Logistics	273	16	0	260.05	-10.02	-4.74
Swiggy	390	38	0	456.00	6.54	16.92
ACME Solar	289	15	5	253.15	-16.73	-13.89
Afcons Infrastructure	463	56	0	474.20	-8.63	2.42
Deepak Builders and Engineers	203	42	35	161.95	-33.90	-31.95
Waaree Energies	1,503	1360	1200	2,338.90	-18.31	-13.47
Hyundai Motor India	1,960	196	0	1,819.60	-15.60	-7.16
Garuda Construction and Engineering	95	5	11	106.36	6.36	0.34
Diffusion Engineers	168	63	60	203.17	-12.05	-10.89
KRN Heat Exchanger	220	238	260	478.79	4.54	-0.25
Manba Finance	120	50	50	152.25	-10.44	-10.44
Arkade Developers	128	65	67	165.86	-14.06	-14.94
Western Carriers	172	43	20	159.44	-25.84	-16.96
Northern Arc Capital	263	169	160	323.40	-25.14	-23.55
PN Gadgil Jewellers	480	245	300	793.30	9.42	1.71
Kross Limited	240	44	30	259.81	-8.52	-3.77
Bajaj Housing Finance	70	49	70	165.00	38.66	17.86
Tolins Tyres	226	31	30	239.40	-6.85	-6.48
Shree Tirupati Balajee Agro	83	25	40	94.50	-12.50	-23.17
Gala Precision	529	245	250	757.15	-2.18	-2.80
Baazar Style Retail	389	100	62	400.00	-18.20	-11.31
ECOS Mobility	334	137	150	443.15	-5.91	-8.44
Premier Energies	450	330	410	839.90	7.68	-2.34
Orient Technologies	206	60	80	302.40	13.68	5.73
Interarch Building Products	900	312	330	1,195.70	-1.34	-2.79
Saraswati Saree Depot	160	46	50	203.70	-1.12	-3.00
Brainbees Solutions	465	63	62	679.10	28.62	28.86
Unicommerce eSolutions	108	37	60	210.08	44.88	25.05
OLA Electric	76	5	20	91.20	12.59	-5.00
Ceigall India	401	63	21	386.75	-16.65	-8.35
Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals	679	161	100	796.25	-5.21	2.21
Sanstar	95	38	33	115.07	-13.48	-10.10
Emcure Pharmaceuticals	1,008	309	360	1,359.15	3.20	-0.65
Bansal Wire	256	67	72	350.35	8.47	6.81
Vraj Iron and Steel	207	60	70	252.00	-5.62	-9.03
Allied Blenders and Distillers	281	68	45	317.90	-8.91	-2.48
Stanley Lifestyles	369	141	160	474.75	-6.91	-10.26
Akme Fintrade	120	36	25	133.35	-14.52	-8.03
Dee Development	203	70	90	335.32	22.83	14.44
Le Travenues Technology	93	28	30	165.72	36.96	34.73
Kronox Lab Sciences	136	59	38	159.32	-18.30	-8.44
Awfis Space	383	108	120	421.75	-14.10	-16.15
Go Digit General Insurance	272	32	25	306.00	0.66	3.03
TBO Tek	920	472	450	1,406.30	1.03	2.65
Aadhar Housing Finance	315	68	55	329.45	-13.98	-10.96
Indegene	452	230	270	570.90	-16.29	-20.93
JNK India	415	56	105	694.55	47.46	33.57
Bharti Hexacom	570	56	93	813.30	29.92	22.67
SRM Contractors	210	76	117	226.00	-20.98	-30.89
Krystal Integrated	715	53	40	712.85	-7.18	-5.58
Popular Vehicles	295	24	5	276.15	-13.43	-7.95
Gopal Snacks	401	69	15	362.70	-22.83	-12.81
JG Chemicals	221	40	7	184.65	-29.25	-19.01
R K Swamy	288	50	25	263.25	-22.12	-15.89
Mukka Proteins	28	20	30	42.25	-11.98	-27.16
Platinum Industries	171	74	90	221.20	-9.71	-15.25
Exicom Tele-Systems	142	122.08	150	224.95	-14.82	-22.96
GPT Healthcare	186	14	15	200.70	0.35	-0.15
Juniper Hotels	360	8.28	5	401.50	9.02	10.00
Vibhor Steel Tubes	151	120.5	130	446.25	64.36	58.81
Entero Healthcare	1,258	68	15	1,149.55	-13.31	-9.70
Rashi Peripherals	311	67.5	60	321.50	-15.06	-13.34
Capital Small Finance Bank	468	30.7	7	435.00	-12.77	-8.42
Jana Small Finance Bank	414	66.5	30	368.15	-23.38	-17.08
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels	155	66.5	30	203.55	-8.10	10.03
BLS E-Services	135	138.18	175	366.00	33.98	18.06
Nova Agritech	41	21.4	23	57.75	-7.45	-9.77
EPACK Durable	230	22.8	10	207.60	-17.88	-13.50
Medi Assist Healthcare	418	47.36	35	464.10	-0.27	2.45
Jyoti CNC Automation	331	66	45	434.20	9.37	15.48

When we plot the figures on a line chart, we notice that the difference between the listing prices of average and last-day GMPs isn’t substantial and gets canceled out in the large data set.

However, a few IPOs clearly stood out for the variance between their listing price and the grey market premium (GMP) expectations. Vibhor Steel Tubes, for instance, had a remarkable variance of nearly 59% from the latest GMP, indicating a strong disconnect between GMP predictions and actual market enthusiasm. Unicommerce eSolutions also surprised with a 25% variance from its latest GMP, showcasing a sharp upside not fully captured in grey market whispers.

On the flip side, Deepak Builders and Engineers saw a sharp 32% downside from its latest GMP estimates, pointing to a significant overestimation by the grey market. Similarly, Udayshivakumar Infra listed 33% below its GMP, revealing how off-track informal pricing signals can be—especially during phases of weak broader market sentiment.

In some large-cap IPOs like Unicommerce and Vibhor Steel Tubes, the high listing prices were possibly driven by panic buying from investors who missed allotment during oversubscription. In contrast, the case of Deepak Builders and Engineers looks like a genuine misreading by the grey market, where the IPO failed to live up to even modest expectations.

So How Accurate is IPO Grey Market Price?

The majority of the remaining listings had variances within the 25% range. While this isn’t ideal, investors need to understand that the grey market isn’t and can’t be as efficient as the regulated stock market.

Key Takeaway 1

High subscription can lead to a reverse squeeze situation which can take listing day performance way above what the grey market indicates.

Key Takeaway 2

Investors can do better by discounting GMP of up to 25%. A closer look at the above table reveals several instances where premiums melted after subscription dates.

Overall, IPO grey premiums offer a glimpse into pre-listing demand and can be valuable, but they may not always indicate the actual listing performance of the IPO. In other words, the accuracy of IPO GMP is not up to the mark. Therefore, investors should use GMP as one of the many tools to make informed decisions about investing in IPOs.